Yesterday was Groundhog’s Day and Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow. The elder Free-Ride offspring expressed concerns about the conclusion that we’re in for six more weeks of winter:
- This is backwards! Seeing his shadow means it’s sunny. Sunny means it’s more like spring. I think seeing his shadow means spring should come sooner, not later.
- That groundhog is in Pennsylvania. We’re in California! Maybe we get spring sooner even if Pennsylvania gets six more weeks of winter. We would really need a groundhog in California to find out anything about what’s going to happen with spring in California.
- Why do they only check what the groundhog sees on this one day? Wouldn’t it be better to check whether the groundhog sees his shadow for lots of days? That would give more information about whether spring is coming sooner or later.
After enumerating all these problems with the Groundhog’s Day methodology:
“I don’t think groundhogs really know how to predict the weather. And, people who think whether the groundhog sees his shadow will tell them when spring will come are being kind of silly.”
Of course, Pseudonymous Kid suggests a change to a different animal system for the prediction.
UPDATE: Caroline Helpy-Chalk proposes yet another animal system here. I see the beginnings of a high-powered research institute …
As pointed out over at inky circus, the ground hog gets it wrong more than he gets it right. http://www.inkycircus.com/jargon/2006/02/the_scientists_.html
So, your offsping’s first point seems pretty valid to me.
It’s obvious the child has a good grasp of scientific method. She’s been gathering data as long as I have known her.
So the question is: Nature or Nurture? As they say, the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.
Certainly nurture has trained her to gather her issues, data and make her best argument quickly before losing the window of parental attention. But wait. That sounds like there might be a lawyer in the gene pool too.
Still glad it is at your house.
I’m going to have to take credit for this. The first time I told her that flamingos turn pink by eating salmon I think it taught her to question the veracity of anything an adult says.
[My recollection is that you told her:
Flamingos turn pink by eating shrimp.
Salmon turn pink by eating flamingos.
But, your point still holds.]
The protests against the groundhog-day test are really uninformed. The groundhog shadow tests a climatological phenomenon that could not have been known when Groundhog Day was first created, but the effects of which could still have been observed: the occurrence of Rossby waves at the convergence of cold air masses from the pole and warm air masses from the tropics. Low-pressure troughs in the Rossby waves extend far south in parts of the US in the winter, but shift during the year. As the line of Rossby waves changes, the centers of mid-latitude cyclones change, as well as the contact point for warm and cold fronts.
So, if the groundhog doesn’t see his shadow, what does it mean? It means that the interface between cold air and warm air has moved far enough north that spring clouds are forming over Pennsylvania. This is clearly a very crude test of something that can be seen easily with weather satellites, but having been formed without a knowledge of the processes involved, is still a very nice test.